by Robert
In ‘The Matrix’, Neo struggled greatly with the decision of whether to take the red pill or the blue pill. I think we’ve all had those moments when it was difficult to make a decision.
When scrolling through the Internet, you often come across statements like “We make at least 20,000 decisions every day.” I was initially a bit skeptical due to this very high number. However, after giving it some more thought, it started to make sense. Consider the decisions like staying in bed for an extra 5 minutes in the morning, choosing between the blue or gray pants, which T-shirt to wear, brushing your teeth from the upper left to the lower right or vice versa, having a second coffee or not. Before leaving the house, you have certainly made several hundred decisions already. And of course, it continues throughout the day.
So, we are used to making decisions. Why, then, do some decisions pose such significant challenges? I think the main drivers are complexity, and uncertainty. These two factors increase the risk associated with a decision, leading to an unfavorable outcome. That’s why it’s easy for us – and we even do it unconsciously – to decide which direction to brush our teeth. The risk that our decision will result in an unfavorable outcome is marginal.
It’s different with bigger life decisions. For example, let’s assume you receive an offer for a leap in your career such as a great postdoc position, heading your own lab, or even an entire department. First, you face the complexity associated with the decision to say ‘yes.’ You have to consider so many things:
- Can and do you want to do this?
- Is the new job compatible with your career goals and ambitions?
- Does the work culture of the new institution align with your values and working styles?
- Are the salary, additional benefits, and other financial incentives sufficient?
- What are the implications for your family: your partner’s career or your children’s education?
- …
Phew, there’s a lot to consider and this list can go on indefinitely. So far, we have only dealt with aspects for which we have sufficient information. We will surely know what the salary looks like and can assess this aspect accordingly. However, uncertainty associated with the decision now also comes into play:
- What about the long-term security and funding of the new position?
- Will you be able to meet all the expectations placed on you, or will you fail?
- Can you build a new social environment and network?
- Will the move affect the happiness and stability of your family?
- Should you accept this offer or wait for a better one?
- …
Unlike complexity, these questions of uncertainty offer no clear answers, only possibilities. And the more complex and uncertain a decision becomes, the greater the risk of an unfavorable outcome rooted in our decision.
Everyone has a different tolerance level for the allowable complexity and uncertainty associated with a decision. Some agonize over choosing a bagel or cereal for breakfast, while others decide on millions of dollars without breaking a sweat. But we all have this hypothetical threshold of complexity and uncertainty beyond which it’s not so easy to decide.
However, there are a few things you can do or should know to shift this threshold.
- Frequently make decisions and learn from them. Experience plays a big role. The more decisions you’ve made, the more consequences you’ve experienced, which allows you to turn uncertainties into complexities (after the third job change, you know more or less what you’re getting into) and assess them better. Through routine, we then decide without much thought, for instance, to sleep 5 minutes longer in the morning.
- Gather information with reasonable effort (but not too much). Information also helps you reduce uncertainties into complexities. Plus, you can better assess issues like those mentioned above. However, too much information about an issue can also lead to more complexity. Therefore, finding the right balance is important. For example, the information that the dean at your new workplace is a “difficult” person can lead to more complexity in your decision to accept the position or not.
- Reduce complexity to what really matters to you. So consider before deciding what requirements need to be met. Once an option meets these requirements, choose it.
- Studies show that decisions not made and thus leading to missed opportunities are regretted much more than decisions that are later deemed unfortunate for oneself. Therefore, it is better to decide rather than hesitate, even if you sometimes don’t get the best result.
- Be aware that one never knows all the information and aspects for a 100% correct decision. Therefore, there are no wrong decisions. There are only decisions whose outcomes we personally assess as better or worse.
- Feelings and your current situation significantly influence your decisions. Where possible, you should try to gain emotional distance from the matter you need to decide on. And although it helps us to make many decisions based on our gut feeling, “sleeping on it” is often not the worst advice you can give. Otherwise, resignation rates would likely be significantly higher.
- There is actually a mathematical law that can help you in decision-making. If I remember correctly, the following statements are based on Benford’s Law: When you have to decide immediately whether to choose an option or look at more options, you should look at 30% of the possible options and then choose the one that is better than all the others before it. This maximizes the expected value of having made the optimal decision. To make it a bit more illustrative: If you’re moving to a new city and can look at a maximum of 10 houses, where you must decide immediately on each, you should look at the first 3 houses and then choose the house that you like better than all the others before. Or you must take number 10. With this strategy, you have maximized the expected value of having chosen the right house.
Don’t shy away from the big decisions. Each one is a chance to make a bold mark on your life.
-Robert